Spring brings heavy rain & extreme drought

A resurgent La Niña has resulted in an active spring storm track across the United States in 2022, highlighted by a series of heavy-precipitation events in the North and many areas from the Mississippi Valley eastward. Depending upon location, weather extremes have included heavy rain, late-season snow and severe thunderstorms. In contrast, worsening drought across the nation’s southwestern quadrant has led to a variety of hazards, such as high winds, blowing dust and fast-moving wildfires. Drought has taken a severe toll on U.S. winter wheat, with 39% of the crop rated in very poor to poor condition by April 24, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. That’s the highest percentage of wheat in those two categories at this time of year since 1996. Looking ahead, there is some risk, especially if La Niña persists, that drought could begin to expand eastward during the summer of 2022, possibly encompassing the upper Midwest. The National Weather Service indicates there is a 50% to 55% chance La Niña could continue for the remainder of 2022, raising the specter that the winter of 2022-23 may feature a third consecutive cold season with La Niña for the first time since 1998-99 to 2000-01.

Heading into the 2022 warm season, national drought coverage remains at historically high levels, despite recent heavy precipitation in the North and East. Drought coverage in the lower 48 states has continuously exceeded 40% since late September 2020, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Additionally, by the end of April, drought had covered more than one-half of the contiguous United States for 23 consecutive weeks, the second longest such streak of the 21st century, behind a 42-week stretch from June 2012 to April 2013. Impacts of protracted drought across much of the western half of the country include poor rangeland and pasture conditions; significant stress on rain-fed agriculture, including winter wheat and spring-sown crops; groundwater and soil moisture shortages; and low reservoir levels. Heading into the warm season, storage in California’s 154 primary intrastate reservoirs stood at just over 18 million acre-feet, lower than a year ago and about 70% of the historical average for this time of year. Spring storage in the entire Colorado River system, including Lake Powell and Lake Mead, stood at less than 17 million acre-feet, about one-half of average

Brad Rippey is an agricultural meteorologist in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Office of the Chief Economist.