OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook projects rising demand and emissions pressure through 2034

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) have released their joint Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034, offering a medium-term global forecast for agricultural and fish markets. 

“We have the tools to end hunger and boost global food security,” OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said. “Well-coordinated policies are needed to keep global food markets open, while fostering long-term productivity improvements and sustainability in the agriculture sector. The OECD and FAO can support policymakers around the world in these efforts with our data, analysis and evidence-based recommendations.” 

Key findings include: 

• Global consumption of livestock and fish products is expected to rise 6% per capita, with lower-middle-income countries projected to see a 24% increase—nearly four times the global average. 

• Calorie intake from animal-source foods in low-income countries will remain well below FAO’s healthy diet benchmark of 300 kcals/day, highlighting persistent nutrition disparities. 

• Agricultural and fish production is expected to grow by 14%, driven largely by productivity gains in middle-income countries. Meat, dairy, and egg output alone will rise 17%. 

• Agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are projected to increase by 6%, even as carbon intensity per unit of production declines. 

• Global cereal production is forecast to grow 1.1% annually, with limited expansion in harvested area (0.14% per year). 

• India and Southeast Asia will drive 39% of global consumption growth through 2034, while China’s share is expected to drop significantly. 

• Widespread adoption of existing technologies—such as precision irrigation, improved nutrient management, and rotational cropping—will be critical to meeting food security and sustainability targets. 

According to the report, a combined 15% increase in productivity and investment in emissions-reduction technologies could eliminate global undernourishment and cut GHG emissions by 7% compared to current levels.