Drought expected to worsen in western U.S. through July, NOAA warns

The latest Seasonal Drought Outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center projects worsening drought conditions across much of the western and central U.S. through July 2025, while eastern drought areas are expected to ease. 

Drought is forecast to persist or intensify across the Northwest, Southwest, Rockies and much of the Plains, where below-normal precipitation is likely. Meanwhile, drought areas east of a Lake Michigan–to–Gulf Coast line are expected to improve or be eliminated, thanks to anticipated above-average rainfall. 

In the Southwest, the outlook hinges on the strength and timing of the July monsoon. Even a robust start is unlikely to deliver enough rainfall to fully reverse entrenched drought in southern Arizona and New Mexico. 

Elsewhere, Hawaii’s drought conditions are expected to persist in leeward areas, though improvement is possible near windward coasts and major cities. Alaska, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands remain largely drought-free, though abnormal dryness in the northern Virgin Islands warrants monitoring. 

NOAA will issue the next Seasonal Drought Outlook on May 15, 2025.