Drought continues, leaving pastures in poor condition

Drought coverage in the Lower 48 States, after reaching a four-year low of 11.77% in June 2024, nearly tripled to 29.95% by early September, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The rapid drought expansion has come with consequences for the nation’s rangeland and pastures, surface water supplies and later-developing summer crops. Current drought is mostly concentrated in a few areas, with some of the worst conditions being observed across the southern Plains, Ohio Valley and Northwest.

As September began, 42% of the U.S. rangeland and pastures were rated in very poor to poor condition, with eight states reporting values above 50%. Additionally, late-summer dryness in parts of the Mississippi River drainage basin has led to low river levels for the third consecutive year. By early September, the Mississippi River level at Memphis, Tennessee, had fallen more than 15 feet over the previous month and stood only slightly more than 5 feet higher than the low-water mark established in October 2023.

The burgeoning U.S. drought impacts have occurred in spite of the fact that La Niña has not arrived as quickly as originally expected. If La Niña still appears — current forecasts indicate a nearly 75% chance of development by the end of the year — drought could further expand or intensify across the southern tier of the U.S. by spring 2025. Although much of the western U.S. enters the 2024-2025 cold season with adequate reservoir storage, chronic water shortages persist in larger, multistate watersheds such as the Rio Grande and the Colorado River Valley; end-of-summer storage in the latter basin stood at 60% of the historical average.